Think back 10 years. No broadband; no social media; no smartphones; no 50 inch LED TVs: no DVRs; no e-readers; and Google hadn’t had its IPO. Now think ahead 10 years. We don’t know what the “next big things” will be, but we do know that “digitization of everything” will be the mantra. We know that geomarketing will be huge; that retail environments will be transformed by digital technologies; that smartphone capabilities will be far more advanced; that internet access anywhere will be a given; that privacy will be even more of an issue.
What will this mean for market research? A few of us are looking into what market research will be ten years from now – as part of a broader ARF initiative on Research Transformation. The last ten years has seen significant innovation in market research –consumer listening starting to take off (Kodak and Dell now have Chief Listening Officers); mining of clickstream data commonplace; internet access panels commonplace; hosted online communities a significant business; neuroscience/biometrics/eye-tracking getting a lot of attention; virtual shopping, behavioral economics and online ethnographies emergent.
We envision a paradigm shift by 2020, driven by digitalization and advances in computing power and data mining capabilities. The fundamental premise is that research in 2020 will represent a continuous and organic flow of knowledge. Today maybe 80% of marketing questions are addressed by conducting a market research project. In 2020, we think that leading-edge companies (probably led by CPG and tech) will address 80% of marketing issues by “fishing the river” of information. These companies will have invested heavily in information base development and mining tools, customizing their own river of information that will include both internal and external information (and not just data – ethnographies and videos will all be tributaries flowing into their information river). And they will likely have self-serve capabilities that enable marketers to get solutions for most of their questions. This threatens to disintermediate the role of today’s market research/consumer insight person. In our new world, the knowledge exists before the business question is formed.
This is exciting, and pretty scary. Is it crazy? I started a discussion on LinkedIn groups; there was quite a lot of support, and some healthy skepticism. Qualitative researchers pushed back, as did those working on innovation. Some thought that the river would help define projects with more precision and better focus, but not replace them. And some were highly skeptical about data mining capabilities applied to listening (have they made the CIA really smart?). Nobody defended large quantitative research projects. But if we’re right about the direction and ultimately the paradigm shift, this would have huge implications for the business of research. How does a major supplier need to evolve? How do market research/consumer insight functions organize for the new paradigm? Who owns the river of information in the client company? What are the competencies needed? And what should suppliers and insight functions start doing now to harness the power of digitization?
Try thinking ahead ten years – what do you envision for the market research business? We’d like to hear from you.
Contact Ian Lewis.








